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Best shots
Predicted finish · if the race were tomorrow
0:00

What closes the gap · drag to try

Every course, ranked

Same fitness, eight real IRONMAN 70.3 courses. The model sees each course's climbing, so the hilly ones cost more on the bike. Tap one to load it above.

Checked before trusted

Before trusting it with anyone else's race, I made it predict mine. Every past race leg was predicted using only the training logged before that day, then compared with what actually happened. Filled dots landed inside the 80% range.

Every checked leg · how far off the prediction was
prediction too fastspot onprediction too slow
See all legs
How it works

Two open models, one laptop, no upload.

01

Your export

Strava's activities.csv or a Garmin CSV. Every swim, ride and run you've logged.

02

Gemma 4 finds your races

Reads every activity title and picks out the races, so race-day effort is labelled without you tagging years of log by hand.

03

Features from your own log

Distance, climbing per km, how long ago, the last 7 and 42 days of training load, and whether it was a race.

04

TabPFN predicts each leg

An open tabular foundation model learns from your sessions in seconds and returns a full spread of likely speeds, not one number.

05

6,000 race days per course

Each leg is drawn from its spread, transitions added, and the share under your goal is your chance.

06

Gemma 4 writes the plan

Short and plain, from the computed numbers only. Any number it makes up gets the note thrown out.

What it learned from

A year of training, in one strip.

52 weeks ago■ swim  ■ bike  ■ runthis week
Why it runs on your laptop

Your training is yours.

Nothing leaves the machine

Heart rate, GPS and every session you've logged are health and location data. Race Card reads your Strava or Garmin export and never sends it anywhere.

Open models, no account

TabPFN v2 is an open tabular foundation model that runs on a laptop CPU in seconds. Gemma 4 writes the note through Ollama, offline.

Run it yourself

pip install git+https://github.com/iamrobertmoore/race-card
racecard your-strava-export.zip --name You --goal 5:00